The Lisbon Treaty could face a shock rejection with the NO side now in the lead, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll.It will take an unprecedented swing in the last week of the campaign for the treaty to be carried. The poll shows the number of people intending to vote No has almost doubled to 35 per cent (up 17 points) since the last poll three weeks ago, while the number of the Yes side has declined to 30 per cent (down 5 points). The number of undecided voters is still a significant 28 per cent (down 12 points) while 7 per cent won't vote.
The massive increase by the No vote since the last poll has mainly come through gains among undecided voters but, even more ominously for the Yes side, it has lost some support to the No camp. While the final outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters, the clear momentum is now with the No campaign and it will take a dramatic shift in public attitudes over the next few days for the Yes side to win.
UPDATE: Simon Richards writes that since Ireland is the only member-state in the European Union holding a referendum on the EU CONstitution, in a sense four million Irish are voting by proxy for nearly half a billion disenfranchised voters. Simon suggests that if you have friends, relatives or business associates in Ireland, contact them and ask them to vote no. Good idea, and one initially proposed by MEP Roger Helmer.